Premier League (Ukraine) · Fri, Oct 9 · 12:30 · Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 80%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 80% for the away win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Veres Rivne6%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
Shakhtar Donetsk80%76%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 20% | 24% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 10% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Veres Rivne
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Kudrivka (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at LNZ Cherkasy (A)0-0
- Aug 14 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)0-0
Shakhtar Donetsk
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Polissya Zhytomyr (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Veres Rivne | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.