Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Atletico Madrid45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Hamburger SV (A)0-1
- Oct 14 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)3-0
- Oct 10 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
Atletico Madrid
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Espanyol (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Osasuna (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.