Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 13:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 43%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart47%43%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen29%33%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 71% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 67% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 56% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- May 2 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-3
- Apr 26 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Apr 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-4
- Apr 12 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinLossLossWinWin
- May 2 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- Apr 25 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Apr 22 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfB Stuttgart form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record