Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 16:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 41%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart59%41%+18
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund20%34%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 66% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 59% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 55% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Mar 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)5-2
- Mar 19 · at Porto (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-0
- Mar 12 · v Porto (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)2-2
Borussia Dortmund
LossLossWinWinWin
- Mar 21 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Feb 25 · at Atalanta (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfB Stuttgart form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record