Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Sep 9 · v Viking FK (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v 1. FC Köln (H)4-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
- Aug 21 · at F.C. Hansa Rostock (A)4-0
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)3-0
- Sep 8 · v Villarreal (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfB Stuttgart form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record