Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 6 · 14:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 45%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart29%17%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%19%+6
OursMarket
FC Bayern München45%64%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 70% | −16 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 36% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 83% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 21% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Dec 3 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-2
- Nov 27 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-0
- Nov 22 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)3-3
- Nov 9 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-2
FC Bayern München
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Dec 3 · at FC Union Berlin (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v St. Pauli (H)3-1
- Nov 26 · at Arsenal (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)6-2
- Nov 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfB Stuttgart form·FC Bayern München form·Head-to-head record