Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 12 · 15:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 51%
A 26% away win. The market says 11%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart51%72%−21
OursMarket
Draw24%17%+6
OursMarket
Hamburger SV26%11%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 68% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 89% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 28% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 86% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 4 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)5-2
- Mar 19 · at Porto (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-0
- Mar 12 · v Porto (H)1-2
Hamburger SV
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 4 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.