Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 15 · 18:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 40%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart52%40%+12
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
RB Leipzig27%36%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 64% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 60% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 52% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 12 · v Porto (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)4-0
- Feb 26 · v Celtic (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
RB Leipzig
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Mar 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-2
- Feb 11 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.