Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 1 · 14:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 50%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart50%56%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
SC Freiburg27%20%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 73% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 29 · v Young Boys (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-0
- Jan 22 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Jan 18 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-1
- Jan 13 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
SC Freiburg
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 29 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v FC Köln (H)2-1
- Jan 22 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)1-0
- Jan 18 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Jan 14 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.