DFB Pokal (Germany) · Thu, Apr 23 · 18:45 · VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 49%
A 26% away win. The market says 19%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart49%59%−10
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
SC Freiburg26%19%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 81% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 41% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 76% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 19 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-4
- Apr 12 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)5-2
- Mar 19 · at Porto (A)0-2
SC Freiburg
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 19 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Apr 16 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Apr 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.