Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 20 · 14:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 47%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim30%29%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 64% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinLossWinWin
- Dec 14 · at Werder Bremen (A)4-0
- Dec 11 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Dec 3 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-2
TSG Hoffenheim
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Dec 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-0
- Nov 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.