Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 1 · 14:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 56%
A 23% away win. The market says 15%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart56%67%−11
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+3
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg23%15%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 70% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 85% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 33% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 82% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Feb 26 · v Celtic (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
- Feb 19 · at Celtic (A)4-1
- Feb 14 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 21 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-3
- Feb 15 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-2
- Feb 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at FC Köln (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.