Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 9 · 16:45 · VfB Stuttgart vs Viking FK
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 59%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart59%77%−18
OursMarket
Draw21%14%+7
OursMarket
Viking FK20%9%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 75% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 59% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 91% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 23% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 86% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 90% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 4 · v 1. FC Köln (H)4-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
- Aug 21 · at F.C. Hansa Rostock (A)4-0
- May 23 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-3
- May 16 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
Viking FK
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 4 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)3-1
- Aug 18 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)2-2
- Aug 14 · at Rosenborg BK (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Viking FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.