Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 26 · 13:30 · VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 66%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfB Stuttgart66%62%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%22%−3
OursMarket
Werder Bremen15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 38% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 78% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfB Stuttgart
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-4
- Apr 12 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)5-2
Werder Bremen
LossWinLossLossWin
- Apr 18 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Köln (A)1-3
- Apr 4 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- Mar 15 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.