2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:30 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs Arminia Bielefeld
Likeliest: VfL Bochum 1848 win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184839%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Arminia Bielefeld33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Aug 28 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)2-1
Arminia Bielefeld
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · at SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.