2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 11:00 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs Hannover 96
Likeliest: Hannover 96 win · 44%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184830%30%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Hannover 9644%46%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 61% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 39% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
LossWinLossWinDraw
- May 2 · at DSC Arminia Bielefeld (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)0-2
- Apr 12 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at Magdeburg (A)1-4
Hannover 96
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- May 3 · v Preußen Münster (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-1
- Apr 18 · v Paderborn (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)2-0
- Apr 5 · v Elversberg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | Hannover 96 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.