2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Aug 7 · 18:30 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs Hertha BSC
Likeliest: Hertha BSC win · 38%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184837%41%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%26%−1
OursMarket
Hertha BSC38%33%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 55% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- May 17 · at Karlsruher SC (A)2-1
- May 9 · v Hannover 96 (H)1-1
- May 2 · at DSC Arminia Bielefeld (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)0-2
Hertha BSC
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- May 17 · at DSC Arminia Bielefeld (A)1-6
- May 10 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)2-1
- May 3 · at Magdeburg (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · v Holstein Kiel (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | Hertha BSC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.