2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 22 · 12:30 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: VfL Bochum 1848 win · 57%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184857%52%+5
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−3
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel22%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 69% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Mar 14 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-2
- Feb 27 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)1-2
- Feb 20 · v Nürnberg (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · v Paderborn (H)0-0
Holstein Kiel
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 14 · v Nürnberg (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · v Elversberg (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · at Karlsruher SC (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v Schalke 04 (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.