2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 26 · 11:30 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Likeliest: VfL Bochum 1848 win · 50%
A 26% away win. The market says 22%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184850%55%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
SpVgg Greuther Fürth26%22%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 78% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 72% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 18 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)0-2
- Apr 12 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at Magdeburg (A)1-4
- Mar 22 · v Holstein Kiel (H)2-3
- Mar 14 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 19 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)3-2
- Apr 11 · at Preußen Münster (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · v Paderborn (H)0-2
- Mar 20 · at Karlsruher SC (A)1-3
- Mar 13 · v Elversberg (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.