2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 11:00 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Likeliest: VfL Bochum 1848 win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184849%49%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
SpVgg Greuther Fürth26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Aug 28 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)2-1
- Aug 14 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-0
- Aug 7 · v Hertha BSC (H)0-1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Energie Cottbus (A)4-3
- Aug 23 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-4
- Aug 9 · at FC St. Pauli (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.