2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:30 · VfL Bochum 1848 vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Bochum 184830%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Bochum 1848
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)4-4
- Sep 18 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at FC St. Pauli (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Energie Cottbus (H)4-4
| Last 10 games | VfL Bochum 1848 | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.