2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg53%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
1. FC Heidenheim23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)4-4
- Sep 18 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at FC St. Pauli (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Energie Cottbus (H)4-4
- Aug 29 · at Karlsruher SC (A)5-2
1. FC Heidenheim
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v SG Dynamo Dresden (H)5-3
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.