Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 44%
A 32% home win. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg32%27%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen44%47%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 37% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Nov 7 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-2
- Nov 2 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-3
- Oct 28 · v Holstein Kiel (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-0
- Oct 18 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossWinLossWinWin
- Nov 8 · v Heidenheim (H)6-0
- Nov 5 · at Benfica (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Oct 21 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-7
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-7 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfL Wolfsburg form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record