Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%32%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 57% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Apr 18 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)3-6
- Mar 21 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Apr 19 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at FC Köln (A)3-3
- Mar 13 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfL Wolfsburg form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record