2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Sep 18 · 16:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt 98
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Darmstadt 9818%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at FC St. Pauli (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Energie Cottbus (H)4-4
- Aug 29 · at Karlsruher SC (A)5-2
- Aug 24 · at VSG Altglienicke (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-0
Darmstadt 98
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 11 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Hannover 96 (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Carl Zeiss Jena (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | Darmstadt 98 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-6 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.