Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 11 · 13:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 39%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg39%37%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt39%36%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 59% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 63% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 4 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)3-6
- Mar 21 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
Eintracht Frankfurt
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 5 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Mar 14 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Mar 8 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfL Wolfsburg form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record