2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 11:00 · VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 59%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg59%73%−14
OursMarket
Draw20%17%+3
OursMarket
Energie Cottbus21%10%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 90% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 27% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 88% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Karlsruher SC (A)5-2
- Aug 24 · at VSG Altglienicke (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)0-0
- May 25 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-1
Energie Cottbus
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 29 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)3-4
- Aug 22 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)0-3
- Aug 9 · v Hannover 96 (H)3-1
- Oct 28 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | Energie Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.