Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 21 · 14:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 42%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg42%42%0
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−6
OursMarket
FC Augsburg36%30%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 55% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 70% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 58% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 15 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-2
- Feb 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at FC Köln (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Heidenheim (H)1-1
FC Augsburg
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Feb 15 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-1
- Jan 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.