Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 16:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 71%
A 71% away win. The market says 60%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg14%20%−6
OursMarket
Draw16%20%−4
OursMarket
FC Bayern München71%60%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 29% | 40% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 80% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 25% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- May 3 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-0
- Apr 18 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)3-6
FC Bayern München
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- May 6 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Heidenheim (H)3-3
- Apr 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Apr 22 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
VfL Wolfsburg form·FC Bayern München form·Head-to-head record