Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 6 · 14:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 30%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg35%42%−8
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin38%30%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 70% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 58% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 59% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Nov 30 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Nov 7 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-2
- Nov 2 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-3
- Oct 28 · v Holstein Kiel (H)0-1
FC Union Berlin
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 3 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Nov 29 · v Heidenheim (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at St. Pauli (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Nov 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-7 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.