Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 20 · 14:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 46%
A 46% away win. The market says 35%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg30%38%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
SC Freiburg46%35%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 52% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Dec 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Nov 30 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Nov 7 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-2
SC Freiburg
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Dec 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Dec 11 · v Salzburg (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Heidenheim (A)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.