Bundesliga (Germany) · Wed, Jan 14 · 17:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 45%
A 32% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg45%51%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
St. Pauli32%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 69% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 11 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-8
- Dec 20 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-4
- Dec 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Nov 30 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-1
St. Pauli
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Dec 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Dec 13 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at FC Köln (A)1-1
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.