Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 21 · 14:30 · VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VfL Wolfsburg43%40%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Werder Bremen35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 54% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Feb 21 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-3
- Feb 15 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-2
Werder Bremen
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 15 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)4-1
- Feb 28 · v Heidenheim (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.