Superliga (Denmark) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Viborg FF vs FC Midtjylland
Likeliest: FC Midtjylland win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viborg FF29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Midtjylland46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viborg FF
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Randers FC (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Brabrand (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Lyngby (H)0-2
FC Midtjylland
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at KF Egnatia (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v FC København (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Odense Boldklub (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Brøndby IF (H)4-2
- Sep 7 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Viborg FF | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.