Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:00 · Viborg FF vs FC Nordsjælland
Likeliest: FC Nordsjælland win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viborg FF32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Nordsjælland42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viborg FF
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 16 · at Brabrand (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Lyngby (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · at AC Horsens (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · v FC København (H)4-0
FC Nordsjælland
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Vinder Vatanspor Vri (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v AGF (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-2
- Sep 3 · at FC København (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Brøndby IF (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Viborg FF | FC Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.