ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Fri, Aug 7 · 13:00 · Vietnam vs Cambodia
Likeliest: Vietnam win · 51%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 27%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vietnam51%87%−37
OursMarket
Draw26%9%+17
OursMarket
Cambodia24%4%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 73% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 37% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 96% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 13% | +37 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 91% | −17 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 95% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vietnam
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 3 · at Indonesia (A)3-0
- Jul 31 · v Singapore (H)0-0
- Jul 24 · at East Timor (A)7-0
- Jul 18 · v Myanmar (H)4-0
- Jul 8 · v Yongin City FC (H)2-1
Cambodia
WinWinLossLossWin
- Aug 3 · v East Timor (H)3-0
- Jul 27 · at Indonesia (A)1-5
- Jul 24 · v Singapore (H)1-2
- Jun 9 · v Hong Kong (H)2-0
- Jun 4 · v Bhutan (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Vietnam | Cambodia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.