ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Wed, Aug 26 · 13:00 · Vietnam vs Thailand
Likeliest: Vietnam win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 54%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vietnam64%54%+10
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Thailand15%20%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 46% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 80% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 46% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 73% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vietnam
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · at Thailand (A)2-0
- Aug 19 · v Malaysia (H)2-0
- Aug 16 · at Malaysia (A)2-0
- Aug 7 · v Cambodia (H)3-1
- Aug 3 · at Indonesia (A)3-0
Thailand
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 22 · v Vietnam (H)0-2
- Aug 18 · v Singapore (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Singapore (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Myanmar (H)2-0
- Aug 4 · at Philippines (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Vietnam | Thailand |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.