3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Viking FK II vs Vindbjart
Likeliest: Viking FK II win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 38%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viking FK II42%38%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+4
OursMarket
Vindbjart30%37%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 63% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 50% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viking FK II
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 5 · at Odds BK II (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Våg FK (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · at Staal Jørpeland (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Varhaug (H)4-0
- Sep 6 · v Stabæk Fotball II (H)3-1
Vindbjart
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Flekkerøy (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Brodd (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v FK Mandalskameratene (H)0-1
- Sep 16 · v IK Start (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · at Stabæk Fotball II (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Viking FK II | Vindbjart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 3-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.