Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:00 · Viking FK vs Fredrikstad FK
Likeliest: Viking FK win · 70%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viking FK70%74%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%15%+3
OursMarket
Fredrikstad FK13%11%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 89% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 26% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 87% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viking FK
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 13 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-3
- Oct 9 · at SK Brann (A)2-0
- Oct 1 · at Madla (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Kristiansund BK (H)8-1
Fredrikstad FK
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v Tromsø IL (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Vålerenga IF (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Stjørdals/Blink (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Viking FK | Fredrikstad FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-0 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.