Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · Viking FK vs Lillestrøm SK
Likeliest: Viking FK win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viking FK68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw16%19%−2
OursMarket
Lillestrøm SK16%15%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 85% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viking FK
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Kristiansund BK (H)8-1
- Sep 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)3-1
Lillestrøm SK
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 17 · v Torreense (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Brann (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)1-4
- Aug 27 · v KF Egnatia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Viking FK | Lillestrøm SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.