Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:30 · Viking FK vs Tromsø IL
Likeliest: Viking FK win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viking FK68%64%+4
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−2
OursMarket
Tromsø IL14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viking FK
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)3-2
- Oct 13 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-3
- Oct 9 · at SK Brann (A)2-0
- Oct 1 · at Madla (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)3-0
Tromsø IL
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v KFUM Oslo (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v HamKam (H)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Alta IF (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Rosenborg BK (A)3-5
| Last 10 games | Viking FK | Tromsø IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.