Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Víkingur Reykjavík vs Fram Reykjavík
Likeliest: Víkingur Reykjavík win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Víkingur Reykjavík66%62%+4
OursMarket
Draw16%19%−2
OursMarket
Fram Reykjavík18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Víkingur Reykjavík
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 16 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v ÍA Akranes (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at KR Reykjavík (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Keflavík IF (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Fram Reykjavík (H)2-2
Fram Reykjavík
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v ÍA Akranes (H)2-4
- Oct 10 · v KR Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Keflavík IF (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Víkingur Reykjavík | Fram Reykjavík |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.