Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:15 · Víkingur Reykjavík vs ÍA Akranes
Likeliest: Víkingur Reykjavík win · 67%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 71% for both teams to score. The market says 65%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Víkingur Reykjavík67%71%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+2
OursMarket
ÍA Akranes15%13%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 75% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 65% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 87% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 29% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 84% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Víkingur Reykjavík
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · at KR Reykjavík (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Keflavík IF (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Fram Reykjavík (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · at KR Reykjavík (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · at FK Borac Banja Luka (A)0-0
ÍA Akranes
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)4-1
- Sep 13 · at KR Reykjavík (A)1-5
- Sep 6 · v KR Reykjavík (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Víkingur Reykjavík | ÍA Akranes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.