Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:00 · Viktoria Plzeň vs FK Pardubice
Likeliest: Viktoria Plzeň win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viktoria Plzeň66%63%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
FK Pardubice14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viktoria Plzeň
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FK Jablonec (A)3-2
- Oct 15 · at Ferencváros TC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
FK Pardubice
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v FC Zlín (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Bohemians Praha 1905 (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FK Kozlovice (A)6-0
- Sep 13 · at Baník Ostrava (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Viktoria Plzeň | FK Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.