Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: Viktoria Plzeň win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viktoria Plzeň57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Levski Sofia19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viktoria Plzeň
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FK Jablonec (A)3-2
- Oct 15 · at Ferencváros TC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
Levski Sofia
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Viktoria Plzeň | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.