Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Viktoria Plzeň vs Mladá Boleslav
Likeliest: Viktoria Plzeň win · 65%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viktoria Plzeň65%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Mladá Boleslav15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viktoria Plzeň
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v SK Sigma Olomouc (H)2-3
- Sep 9 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Líšeň (A)3-0
Mladá Boleslav
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · at FK Třinec (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Baník Ostrava (H)4-0
- Aug 22 · v 1. FC Slovácko (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Viktoria Plzeň | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.