Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:00 · Viktoria Plzeň vs SK Sigma Olomouc
Likeliest: Viktoria Plzeň win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Viktoria Plzeň60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
SK Sigma Olomouc18%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Viktoria Plzeň
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 9 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Líšeň (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v 1. FC Slovácko (H)1-1
- Aug 27 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)4-1
- Aug 20 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)0-3
SK Sigma Olomouc
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Bohemians Praha 1905 (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Baník Ostrava (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v FK Pardubice (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at 1. FC Slovácko (A)2-1
- Aug 9 · at SK Líšeň (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Viktoria Plzeň | SK Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.