Serie B (Brazil) · Wed, Oct 7 · 23:30 · Vila Nova FC vs Cuiabá
Likeliest: Vila Nova FC win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vila Nova FC47%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Cuiabá21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 41% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vila Nova FC
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Botafogo-SP (A)1-0
- Sep 25 · v Londrina (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · v América Mineiro (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Avaí (A)1-1
- Sep 10 · v Goiás (H)2-0
Cuiabá
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Ponte Preta (H)2-0
- Sep 27 · at CRB (A)0-3
- Sep 22 · v Náutico (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at Novorizontino (A)1-1
- Sep 8 · v Athletic Club (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Vila Nova FC | Cuiabá |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.