La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 24 · 19:00 · Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 43%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal43%39%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid33%36%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 64% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 52% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- May 17 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Sevilla (H)2-3
- May 10 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Levante (H)5-1
- Apr 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
Atlético Madrid
WinLossLossWinWin
- May 17 · v Girona (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- May 5 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- May 2 · at Valencia (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.