La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 26 · 19:00 · Villarreal vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 51%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal51%48%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Mar 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-1
- Mar 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-1
Celta de Vigo
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
- Apr 16 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Apr 12 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
- Apr 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · at Valencia (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.